In the first quarter of 2009, we reached the climax of US banking collapse. Global central banks hurried to apply fiscal and monetary stimulus, including unconventional "Quantitative Easing", which entailed the printing of over $1.5 trillion to buy troubled mortgage and derivative assets. Our conclusion then was
"In Q1 we likely saw the peak of the dollar. Mr. Bernanke and Mr. Obama continued with hyper-inflationary fiscal and monetary policies which will spark the resumption of commodity bull. Asian markets are breaking away from US equities, this is what we anticipated. I look to accelerated global recovery and volatile markets, with positive uptrend ahead."
So what's in store for the rest of 2009?
We are entering a new renaissance:
With the talk of financial crisis receding, the focus will be back on the dollar. The US budget deficit is projected to reach $2 trillion in 2010. As the generation of baby boomers enters the entitlement phase, the deficit will only likely to go higher. Medicare spending for the first time exceeded contribution, and the Medicare trust fund became a net seller of US treasury instead of being a contributor. While the budget deficit situation is alarming, what concerns me the most is the waning appetite of foreign investors on dollar debts. Dollar debts owned by foreign investors currently stand at over $12 trillion. China, Brazil, India, and Russian are explicitly warning US to reign in deficits to save the dollar. I wonder when their patience will run out.
The dollar standard lasted 4 decades and channeled 70% of the world's resources and investment to America, a country with 5% of the world population.
The jettison of the dollar standard will ensure uniformed distribution of wealth and investment throughout the world. I would boldly state that the global growth will accelerate as we enter a new renaissance with industrial and hi-tech revolution that will put the 1900's industrial revolution to shame.
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